The Curse of Cup Tournaments and How to Bet Better on them

How many times has the following situation happened to you? You check the sports agenda the next day, you realize that cup tournament games will be played and you quickly decide that you will bet for the most powerful teams, especially if they face more modest teams. The day and time of the game arrive, initial whistle and as the game progresses, everyone wonders what the hell is happening with the super favorite. In the end, the powerful one is defeated shamefully against the weak and modest team. Your bets considered safe by the abysmal theoretical difference between both teams have been ruined. The super favorite lost and was even eliminated from the competition.

This nightmare is repeated year after year in all the cups of all the countries of the world. At the time of writing, the mighty Barcelona fell as a visitor 0-1 against the always modest Espanyol in the Catalan derby. If it isn't because in Copa del Rey the games are played by reciprocal visits, the scandal would have been huge. Barcelona can still come back in the game back and advance to the next round. But previously it happened with Arsenal in the England FA Cup when they were eliminated.

Why does this phenomenon happen? What happens in the minds of summoned players in cup matches to lose when logic would indicate that they would have to win by many goals? Why do the cracks on the court, instead of being competitive, looks strangely lost and without ideas? It's a mystery and it isn't possible to find a single specific cause, but we have some reasons to believe that the following factors greatly influence the performance of the favorite, and therefore the final result of the match: 

• Lack of interest. Important teams commonly have their agenda saturated most of the year as they compete in international tournaments in addition to the local ones. They establish their priorities and place both the main league of their country and the continental league as their priority objectives. The cups and competitions where they have to be eliminated with teams of lower divisions are relegated to the background. That is why in the first stages of a cup the favorites are plagued by substitutes and the coaches take the opportunity to experiment with new tactical rotations and strategies, making the club prone to take a defeat. 

• Rotations. The cracks and super stars will never appear against the third division teams, unless it is a player who has just recovered from an injury that kept him inactive for a considerable time and needs to pick up the pace. The substitutes and summoned players from reserve teams will enter the scene to defend the colors of their club, although the lack of habit of playing among them will be a disadvantage. Finally the coach will have found an opportunity to use the cup as an experimental laboratory and will try different tactical approaches and, according to their effectiveness, test them later in the priority competitions. 

• Overconfidence. If it isn't the case of the factors that have just been explained and the favorite jumps to the field with his stars, it's very likely that they play very relaxed and unhurriedly trusting that the weight of their shirt and their great talent eventually will give them the defeat. In contrast, the modest rival will jump to the field excited to stand up to the important names of football. They will not miss the looks of the assistants in the great stadiums or of the T.V. viewers to show the world their own talents and abilities. Total have nothing to lose but everything to gain. His defeat will be as expected. On the other hand, the victory will turn into an event with strong national media repercussion, and maybe world-wide according to the defeated super favorite rival. A battle between David and Goliath. We believe that this is the main factor that causes painful and ridiculous defeats to the great teams of each country around the world. 

Our advice: There will be many games where in the end the logic is imposed and the champion will be a favorite team from the beginning. But also the cups will continue to be tournaments where big surprises are the order of the day for the factors that were already explained in this article. The best thing will always be to prospect the matches choosing those where the squads have real reasons to be champions in the current year. For example Real Madrid has practically lost La Liga 2017-2018, so it's very likely that their efforts will focus on winning the Copa del Rey and the UEFA Champions League. 1X2 bets will always be a big risk, so it's better to bet on which team qualifies for the next round or even more sure to go to the goal markets.